Tulsa rides out recession: New report ranks Tulsa and OKC among the top cities performing in bad economy.

By LAURIE WINSLOW World Staff Writer
March 18, 2010


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Mar. 18--Tulsa and Oklahoma City are ranked among the top 20 strongest-performing metro areas in the recession, according to a report released Wednesday by the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution.

The MetroMonitor, an interactive barometer of the health of America's metropolitan economies, tracks the economic recession and recovery in the nation's 100 largest metro areas.
It looks at various indicators, including changes in employment, the unemployment rate, gross metropolitan product and housing prices.

"Tulsa and Oklahoma City have done relatively well on all the indicators that we track. They've lost a lot fewer jobs than most other places," said Howard Wial, a fellow and economist with the Metropolitan Policy Program. "Their unemployment rates are relatively lower and have gone up less than other places.

"Their housing markets are relatively strong. Even though every place we looked at saw house prices go down between the end of 2008 and the end of 2009, Tulsa and Oklahoma City were among places where house prices went down the least."

Both Oklahoma metro areas took about a year longer than the nation to start their downturns, Wial observed. Whereas the country as a whole went into a recession the end of 2007, Tulsa and Oklahoma City didn't enter a recession until the last quarter of 2008.

Places that have a concentration of energy jobs such as Tulsa and Oklahoma City have done "pretty well" during this recession and been hit less hard than other places, Wial said. Oklahoma City also has benefited from having state government jobs, which have been stable.

According to the report, only 20 of the top 100 metros experienced job growth in the fourth quarter. All 100, however, saw gains in output during the quarter.

Also, employment is recovering far slower in the current recession than in the three other most recent U.S. downturns. Over the past decade, the nation gained almost no jobs in large part because of the latest recession, according to the report.

"The nation as a whole is still in a very modest, very tentative, very uncertain economic recovery, which in most places is still a jobless recovery," Wial said. "Job growth at the metro level has occurred only in a minority of the top 100 areas, and even where it has occurred, it's been spotty and inconsistent."

In some cases, a metro area might log job growth for one quarter but not the next.

"So, the fragility of the recovery is really important at this point, and it's not clear whether that will turn into a more robust recovery or turn into a double-dip recession," Wial said.

Over the last 10 years, Tulsa and Oklahoma City -- like most areas in the South and West -- gained jobs. Because of the current recession, Oklahoma City has lost about three years of job growth, while Tulsa has lost about 2 3/4 years of job growth, which is modest compared with many places, Wial said.

At the end of 2009, employment in Oklahoma City was about the same as it was at the end of 2006, while in Tulsa employment was comparable to what it was at the beginning of 2007, Wial said.

According to the report, Tulsa ranked No. 1 for its zero percent one-year change in housing prices, compared with a U.S. average of minus 6.5 percent.

The Tulsa area ranked No. 13 for its -2.4 percent change in employment from its peak in the 2008 fourth quarter through the 2009 fourth quarter. It ranked No. 37 for its -0.2 percent fourth-quarter change in employment.

Also, the Tulsa area ranked No. 18 for its fourth-quarter unemployment rate of 7.1 percent, while Oklahoma City ranked No. 5 for its 6 percent rate.

Oklahoma City also ranked No. 12 for its change in employment from the 2008 fourth quarter and No. 59 for its fourth-quarter change in employment.

Top 20 strongest areas Top 20 strongest-performing metro areas during the recession in alphabetical order, according to the MetroMonitor.

Albany, N.Y. Augusta, Ga.-S.C. Austin, Texas Baton Rouge, La. Buffalo, N.Y. Dallas El Paso, Texas Jackson, Miss. Kansas City, Mo.-Kan. Little Rock, Ark. Madison, Wis. McAllen, Texas Oklahoma City Omaha, Neb.-Iowa Rochester, N.Y. San Antonio, Texas Syracuse, N.Y. TULSA Virginia Beach, Va.- N.C. Washington, D.C., Va.- Md.- W.V.

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